The UK economy will remain stuck in the doldrums this year with a recovery led by exports unlikely to emerge until 2011, a leading forecaster has predicted.
The Ernst & Young ITEM Club said the immediate prospects for Britain were "dismal" with growth of 1% or less predicted in 2010.
The ITEM Club's chief economic adviser Peter Spencer said there were "good reasons to be optimistic" about overseas demand - such as the weak pound.
But he warned global trade was unlikely to regain its 2008 peak until the end of next year.
ITEM, which uses the Treasury's own economic model for its forecasts, said UK consumers were likely to remain under pressure, forcing companies to look abroad.
The forecaster said consumer spending was too weak to sustain a recovery as households were hit by high debts, subdued wage growth and lingering risks ofunemployment.
Mr Spencer said: "The lack of domestic growth opportunities will force exporters and other organisations to seek overseas income streams, particularly in Asia."
He added that "the weak pound makes UK output extremely competitive".
Mr Spencer went on: "The longer this situation continues the more obvious it will become that this is the way forward, both for businesses and the macro economy."
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